Last year, this day, Jokowi officially becomes the 7th Indonesian President. In order to evaluate this one year, Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) analysed Jokowi’s administration economic performance.
INDEF Bigdata Analysis (2015) based on social media data (twitter) found that since 20 October 2014 to Mid-October 2015 there were 12 millions twits about Jokowi-JK which were 150k twits about “development” (Picture 1).
Picture 1. INDEF Bigdata Analysis was published by Metro TV
Source: Metro TV (2015)
The key result of this bigdata research shows that nearly 60 percent of development in Indonesia under Jokowi administration is still centralised in Java/Jawa (Picture 2), just like the old regimes, even getting worse (Table 1).
Picture 2. Development Dispersion in Indonesia, Oct 2014-Oct 2015
Source: Datalyst INDEF, Ramadiah et al (2015)
This finding (Picture 2) is very interesting because it confirms Indonesia regional GDP data as shown in table 1 below. Therefore, I personally doubt that Jokowi can solve this regional disparity.
Table 1. Share of Indonesian GDP since 1971
Source: Indonesia Statistics Office (BPS) and Suahasil (2010)
Prior to this study, Ramadiah and team successfully predicted the last Indonesian presidential election result with the same method. This prediction had the lowest mean absolute error than other conventional surveys (Picture 3).
Picture 3. Candidates Popularity in Indonesian Presidential Election, 2014
Source: Ramadiah et al (2014), http://analisispolitik.info/pilpres2014/
This presentation was reported in many medias, such as Metro TV (Picture 1) and Jakarta Post article, and many more.
Indeed, it was very interesting study and method introduced by INDEF Datalyst, well done Ami (Amanah Ramadiah), Fitri (Fitri Nurinsani), Abdi (Omar Abdillah), and team (they got their undergrad degree in Computer Science from University of Indonesia class of 2009), brilliant young talents!
However, it was a very disappointing performance from Jokowi in this first year. the lowest economic growth since 2009, increase in poverty rate and number of poor people, etc.
When Jokowi elected, Time magazine called him as “a new hope”, World Bank in Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) March 2015 said “High Expectation”, but in the next edition World Bank said “Slower Gains”. Yup, in short, this first year was high expectation but very low gains, a disappointing year.